KANSAS CITY, Mo., May 1—
Farmers and grain traders here in the Middle West,
like the Washington agricultural advisers whom many of them heed, were
reacting with restrained enthusiasm today to the Soviet Union's
agreement on Thursday to buy four million metric tons of American wheat.
The reason for the restraint was that the amount
involved, a total of 147 million bushels, represented only about 8
percent of a surplus totaling 1.88 billion bushels that is expected to
be in storage in midsummer when a new harvest of about two billion
bushels will be pouring in.
But the enthusiasm reflected the belief that the
agreement was a clue to a renewed commitment by the Reagan
Administration to wage a tough fight with trade competitors, using some
of the toughest features of the current farm law to meet foreign prices
and subsidize exports. It is also widely viewed as a sign that other
deals will probably follow.
Carolyn Rains, who shares the management of about
2,500 acres of wheat land in Wellington, Kan., summed up the
implications of the development. Growth in Global Production
''It's a start,'' she said. ''It's by no means an
immediate answer to our wheat problem; not this sale, anyway. But if it
continues it could certainly help our trade and our farm problems too.''
The development must be viewed against a background
of global production that has overwhelmed demand. As a result, American
surpluses have piled up and farmers have suffered.
The Food Security Act of 1985, along with a new
Export Enhancement Program, offered new devices to deal with the
problem. Under the 1985 law, the Government could reduce price supports
sharply in an effort to make American farm prices more competitive and
to make up the losses to farmers with income subsidies. And where that
device failed to push prices low enough to make deals, the Export
Enhancement Program could take over, offering subsidies to promote
foreign sales.
There is some indication, as Martin Abel, a
Washington consultant noted today, that the threat posed by those
programs has already had some effect. It appears to have led some
rivals, including Australia and Argentina, to cut back on some of their
grain plantings.
But until recently the Reagan Administration refused
to extend the subsidy benefits to the Soviet Union that it offered to
other trading partners. Need for Federal Approval
The reason for any remaining uncertainty is that any
deals must be made between the Soviet traders and private American
sellers and then submitted to the Government for approval of the rate of
subsidy involved, as John Schnittker, another Washington consultant,
noted. Under current conditions a deal might work like this:
The Russians would buy a portion of their wheat from
a trader at the world price of $82.50 a ton. But the dealer would have
to acquire the grain at American prices, now about $115 a ton at export
terminals.
The shipper would then submit the deal to the
Government for approval of a subsidy to represent the $32.50 difference.
The announcement of the agreement on Thursday has led American traders
to assume that reasonable deals will gain approval.
''One has to assume that the Russians and the
American Government are dealing in good faith on both sides,'' one
prominent trade official said.
Rumors about an agreeement had already raised wheat
prices about 30 cents a bushel, even before the deal was closed. Wheat
Prices Rise
Today the wheat market at the Kansas City Board of
Trade reacted with continued but restrained enthusiasm. Contracts for
July delivery of wheat rose 6.25 cents a bushel in heavy trading.
One reason for the optimism, according to
agricultural experts, is that both farmers and traders now assume that
this is only the first of an expanding series of deals that they expect
to be made with the Russians. And behind assumption, some say, is more
than a Soviet wish to meet the provisions of a five-year trade agreement
signed in 1983. That deal called for the Russians to buy at least nine
million tons of grain a year, including four million tons of wheat.
In the last two years the Russians have bought very
little, saying that American prices were too high.
Some experts suspect that the Russians may be
motivated to buy more wheat now out of a desire to assure themselves of
an American source because of a recent deterioration of the Soviet grain
crop. The Soviet wheat crop is now estimated at 195 million tons, down
from last year's harvest of 210 million.
Major Russian wheat regions suffered a harsh winter,
and severe damage to winter wheat is suspected. In addition, weather
problems delayed the planting of spring wheat, exposing it to severe
heat and drought problems that can afflict late-maturing crops.
Any further deterioration, experts say, could lead
to still more sales of wheat to Russians. And the new willingness of the
Reagan Administration to use its subsidy tool, they say, enhances
prospects that Soviet traders may fulfill even more of the provisions of
the five-year agreement and buy other grains, such as corn and
soybeans.
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